1. Real world “traditional” (also called brick-n-mortar) business will continue to be confounded by the fast paced marketing changes that the Internet and mobile web have brought. As evidence of this, most businesses still have no success to report with their online or mobile marketing efforts. (NOTE: having a website built is typically an entirely futile exercise for many businesses, so I’m not suggesting that’s the next step!) Online marketers like us will race to fill the void AS WILL GOOGLE. Google isn’t our competitor though! They make the tools that make our job easier, and if you are willing to talk to biz owners you could build a thriving business. One way to take advantage of this trend is by joining OfflineBiz.com. Members of that site stay up to date on what works online without having to be a technical nerd to make it all happen.
2. The car you drive, the house you live in, the ‘toys’ you have etc. will mean less and less compared to your “influence” as measured by your online audience. Strange things will happen in the world of business as the “little guy” destroys the big guy. An extreme example; for the first time in history it’s quite possible that a 13 year old in a small town in nowhere Nebraska could bring a company like Pepsi Co. to its knees because of the loyalty and size of his audience on Youtube. Influence is the new gold standard. Grow your audience and give them reasons to be loyal. (Update for 2012 – use tools like Klout.com to find influential partners and measure your own online influence.)
3. Good ideas, great ideas, bad ideas, wrong ideas and all sorts of other ideas will continue to pound and distract the masses. To get big things done you need a clear mission, you must position yourself on a platform of expertise, and you’ll need supportive peers and partners along side. That’s what MySilentTeam.com and OfflineBiz.com are all about. Find a community, grow with it, and support it. Start your own community, or belong to one. For goodness sakes BE PART OF A GROWING COMMUNITY ONLINE.
4. Relationship will rule. It’s not the slickest websites, the best “traffic generation” tactics, or even necessarily the best content that will rise to the top. It will be the businesses that establish real and trusting relationships with their audiences that will thrive. Make the price of “divorce” so high that it hurts. That’s how you win online now.
5. It’s going to get harder and harder to be a long term successful “scammer” online. The honest and worthy will rise even more quickly and the bad guys will fall faster than ever. Honesty will be very self serving to the point that even the dishonest at heart will start to catch on and use these strange new tactics called “honesty and extraordinary customer service” as a self preservation tool. Customers are already demanding the twitter feed of CEO’s before they’ll buy a widget…it’s going to get worse (or better depending on your perspective). Update 2012: It finally pays to be irrationally generous in all you do…because it’s so easy for your customers to share this fact with their large and growing circles of influence.
6. Bad content online will become increasingly invisible and consumers learn to trust the trustworthy. It will get harder and harder for junk to rise to the top. The good will get better and the bad will disappear. Google is only going to get BETTER and finding and punishing anything they deem to be “spam” on websites or in email. Update 2012: There’s a lot of “junk” out there to be sure, but it’s easier than ever to avoid it. Junk slingers are going broke because the “crowd” is now voting and being heard. It takes more effort than ever to waste time on junk websites. Real RELATIONSHIPS are being formed.
7. Those reading this article will be followed by TENS OF THOUSANDS who are newly eager to learn the secrets of this online business world that they’ve always scoffed at. Suddenly WE are the smart ones who have job security while they are getting laid off from big companies (like Pepsi that was forced into layoffs when it got nearly shut down by a 13 year old a few paragraphs ago). Soon not even taxpayer funded jobs will be as secure as once assumed. I’ve got the best job I can imagine ever having.
8. Thousands of new ways to profit from all of the changes will continue to FALL INTO THE LAPS of those paying attention. Change = opportunity. This is going to be a decade of massive rapid changes on and offline. Pay attention and enjoy the ride! All of this “change” is stirring up a lot of business possibilities – no formal education and no tech skills needed.
9. Amazon and eBay will continue to DOMINATE online commerce. If you sell any physical product at all they ARE your competition. Ignoring them is a foolish plan if you have any type of physical product to sell. There are also big opportunities to participate because of all the traffic these two sites get.
10. Google+ will struggle to take hold, Twitter won’t be taken as seriously as a business tool, and Facebook won’t be “cool” much longer for several reasons. The “social media” wars are just getting started and there’s room for big new players. Don’t get too vested in any of them though – it’s still the wild west. (And for goodness sakes…stop wasting time on Facebook. It won’t matter in 5 years!)
11. Affiliate marketing is a fools game and more “experts” will agree with me than disagree with me very soon. Unless you really know what you are doing it’s a time waster (hint: Building websites and putting content on them does not qualify as “knowing what you are doing”). This will become even clearer over the coming months and years. Read more about my thoughts on this topic in this article showing why “Affiliate marketing is not a business”, or this article explaining why “I DO still love (and hate) affiliate marketing”, or for more info visit the “affiliate marketing” tab on my blog.
12. The most successful businesses will be run by small teams of creative thinkers leveraging the web in creative ways. That’s where I’ll be playing.
What is your favorite prediction? Any questions? Did I forget something? Leave a comment – click the comment button at the top of this article to read comments left or to leave your own.