A bit dramatic perhaps, but if I’m right you’ll REALLY thank me. I’m not foolish enough to predict the actual demise of Google, but they are changing dramatically right before our eyes and I think I can help us all win if we understand what’s happening.
My last article told you why I thought CONTENT was king and how to rank high in Google search results the right way. This article is my supporting proof to hopefully convince you I’m right.
My title could be a bit less dramatic, sure. More accurately stated, this article is about the massive changes I see coming in Google search, and while I’m almost certain it will impact Google’s bottom line in a BIG way, I’m much more interested in helping you know what to do about it NOW to be in a great position as it starts to happen. Even if I’m wrong, I’ll have golden advice for you at the end of this article that will make total sense to you (I hope).
Summary: This article is about how Google search will inevitably change very soon (I predict) and how to benefit from it starting now.
I’ll cover three things:
- The facts we know
- The only obvious conclusions I can think of as a result of these facts, and
- What you can do NOW to position yourself for traffic, wealth, influence and greatness as Google changes.
Not only do I think trends are in play to wipe out a chunk of Google’s cash flow (Billions annually as browser users “mature”), I also think that the famed Google search engine algorithm is in jeopardy of being increasingly irrelevant very soon for billions of search terms. Even if these observations are well ahead of their time, I’ve got some golden advice for you anyway. If I’m right about the time-line though, I think you’ll be calling me a genius as early as a couple years from now.
Bold predictions perhaps, but see if you can find any holes in my logic.
We know these facts:
- How Google Makes it’s cash: Google generates most of its revenue currently from Ads running via Adwords/Adsense etc. If you search for “how to build a dog house” you’ll get paid ads mixed in with what Google thinks are the best sites on the web on the subject based on it’s complex and highly secretive ranking algorithm.
- We are starting to ignore ALL ads: The WHOLE WORLD (especially online) is caring less and less about what advertisers have to say about themselves (paid advertising), and they are caring more and more about what other users and independent reviewers have to say. It’s an undeniable trend.
- We (Google users) are getting smarter and we have opinions: Google users will learn soon (and most have already learned) that the “organic” or “unpaid” results on Google are where the true experts and most respected results are. Sure, paid search results are monitored by Google for “quality score”, but it’s still a game of who has the most money and time to put into writing creative ads. The paid ads do not reflect the quality of the business, knowledge of the expert or usefulness of the content behind the ad. In other words, for good reason we as consumers are caring less and less about paid ads even on Google.
- Google wants us to rank content online and WILL increasingly respect our choices: Google recognizes the need to get end users into the game of “ranking” content, providers, businesses, experts and everything else. This is why Google came up with the +1 system you see everywhere now. Those ranks will inevitably begin to mean more and more over time. How do I know this? Why else would Google allow us to “vote” on virtually every piece of content online if Google plans on ignoring our votes? I think we’ll see some anti-fraud measures added to the +1 system and Google will take the votes increasingly seriously over time. Sure, they may keep their “algorithm”, but just as with Local Search we’ll start to see the customer feedback really driving the ship. The challenge for Google will no longer be tweaking the algorithm, but will become preventing +1 fraud.
- Ignoring consumer preferences and FORCING us toward paid ads would hurt Google: Any unbiased ranking system can not possibly allow “paid” positioning to be confused with “most popular” results. Sure, Google will still run ads, and sure, some people will still click, but who do you trust more if you are buying a book about building a dog house, 1,000 of your voting peers, or a slick ad writer?
The big question:
If I’m right, where are we heading given the above facts that I think are indisputable?
What will Google do as all these trends unfold and the changes begin to effect their bottom line?
Some of Google’s options once this loss of ad revenue scenario plays out (these are my theories only):
- Start charging us a pay per use/membership fee to use Google (not likely)
- Stop allowing us to vote on content and hope we’ll trust their super secret ranking algorithm forever instead – while also hoping that we’ll accidentally continue to click on and respond to paid ads (this option would almost certainly lead to Google being replaced by a better search engine that allows and respects our votes)
- Google will find a way to snap up experts, top content producers etc. like they snap up small companies now and find ways to cash in on their content. Don’t think they’ll do it? That’s how they run YouTube now with “invitation only” revenue sharing. It won’t be Adsense either – that’s already “uncool” in most corners (and fewer of us will be clicking ads remember?)
- Get a govt. bailout because they are too big to fail (joke)
Regardless of whether or not it plays out exactly like I’m betting it will the following advice is pure gold:
- Create great content and post it all over the place online. Content will clearly RULE both short term and long term online. Any SEO tricks, built in a week websites, set-it-and-forget-it marketing efforts etc. will all DRY UP and be useless at an increasingly faster pace.
- Actively seek the votes and support of your audience as you crank out high quality, low cost (or free) content.
- Monitor your influence and take steps to increase it.
- Engage with your audience. Be in constant conversation. Ask for tangible feedback and support from them.
What if you are not an expert at anything yet? Tap into this trend anyway by helping other true experts capture and share their great content online. I’m always looking for creative people with creative ideas that will expand my reach online and I’m willing to reward their efforts. I’m not the only one in that position either!
You’ll also find many “clueless” experts and content rich businesses in the world that could use help getting into position for the shifts that are happening. Convince them that content is king and then help them get it out there to their eager audience.
Good stuff thanks. I’m not in the marketing of products for cash biz. But I am always looking for ways to broaden my audience. You are one of the only sources of honest marketing I have found.
Radical Social Commentary is a small, growing, & thirsty niche. I’ve found little money to be made but honestly I don’t look because that’s just not what I do. There is nothing wrong with you doing it. There likely wouldn’t be anything wrong with me doing it. I’m just not interested. If I get interested in some cash I’ll get back to you about that. Mean while, Coolness.
No matter what the goal of your content is, I’m talking about having a larger audience exposed to it. Whether or not your choose to monetize that attention is entirely up to you!
A great article. And I believe that content is king.
If what you say is true then adsense sites are on the their way out, but good affiliate sites will be on the upswing.
Is this true?
Great insight, Jim! I just finished reading “In the Plex” by Steven Levy. Despite their Brobdingnagian nature, Google still thinks like a small, spirited we-want-to-change-the-world startup. Fascinatingly, Google themselves seems to agree with you. In the book, Levy describes how Google expects their engineers to operate on an 80/20 schedule. They are encouraged to spend 20% of their work time pursuing pet projects, which they do NOT need management approval for! Chaotic? Sounds like it, but the Twenty Percent rule has produced such successful features as Google Maps, Google Places, Google Translate and Google Docs!
You are probably right that Google will snap up experts and content producers, but what you are describing in this post is the Free Market system at its best! Let the public decide what they want, what they like, how much they will pay for it, and keep the big decision makers (Federal government, monster corporations) OUT of the picture!
Good thoughts on Google Jim. I agree. It’s another example of how the free market will keep encouraging creativity and innovation. It will also keep weeding out the scoundrels who try to game the system.
I hit your +1 button.
Hi Jim,
Very interesting piece you’ve written.
Can’t remember the last time I clicked on a Google, Facebook
or other paid ad!
I tend to agree with your conclusions and think that anyone
who doesn’t give serious consideration to your predictions may as well shoot
themselves in the foot. Not saying
it will happen just as you’ve prophesied, but stranger things have happened
(the fall of the Berlin Wall). We
know this industry changes so fast and frequently, anything is possible.
It is all about relevance, and as people’s needs, beliefs
and core values change, so will the way the major players on the Internet
interact with society (or they will find themselves in the same position as
Netscape).
Frankly, I think Google has put itself in an incredible
position to capitalize on what they have created because of people’s reliance
on search engines. Their recent
purchase of Zagat is just one example of how they may very well become a
dominant part of all things “influence”.
And your point about snapping up experts and making them a part of their
sphere of influence makes a lot of sense.
For those who aren’t experts themselves, who are wondering
how they might take advantage of the changes you foresee? Your recent video post to YouTube about
the changes that just took place at ClickBank are a killer example of how they
can cash in on the inevitable change that is coming down the road.
Thanks for a stimulating read!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9Jcv53Q–4
nice job tying those two pieces together Joe…agreed. “Expertise” is an asset any of us can tap into even if we don’t have it ourselves!
Jim,
This is a great blog! I think you are dead on with your predictions. I never worry about what Google is doing. I pay attention but I don’t waste my time trying to figure it all out, why? My time is better spent elsewhere. I create original quality content, build my list and try to think outside the box.
Diversify and Specialize!
Very insightful Jim. I agree that “ads” will begin to fade into the background and soon there will be a web version of dvr where we can surf and skip ads. Hope you’re doing well
Great post, Jim. I think you are dead-on in your predictions. I love the idea of content being king and users having a big say in what ranks high in the search engines.
Just speaking for myself, when I search/browse the internet, I am constantly looking for great content. I could care less about the ads. Not to say that I don’t search for products, which I do, but I do so on my own terms, when I have something very or semi-specific in mind.
Yes, it’s now a pretty solid consensus that “content is king.” Still, I don’t think this quite nails it. In this world of ours, sales is the real king. This doesn’t mean that you can sell trash. You still need the top quality content. But it is not enough. You need to know your customer’s mind and heart and understand how to present and deliver the content, and thereby also cement a solid relationship with your customers.
Shame that this guy doesn’t even have a basic knowledge of punctuation or grammar – especially for a guy who blogs professionally. What a terrible writer. I hope his kids don’t take his cue for their own studies.
Thanks for the encouragement Tom. Glad you stopped by today.
What is the curious neurological disorder that you suffer from, Tom? I’m afraid it’s you, not Jim, who have the literacy challenge. Apart from normal idiomatic usage this article is without flaw.
I have a love/hate relationship with google … they are great for some stuff and then, when you start to become accustomed to the way they work, they shift the goal posts.
They are tilting the world in favour of the large companies with large advertising budgets and making it much harder for the small, individual shops to reach a global audience. Even if advertising isn’t working as well as formerly, there are still plenty of people who are new to the net and who are relying on Google search results just as they are presented; so the sales go to the advertisers with the biggest pockets and/or most relevant ads which appear as the first result on Google. 🙁